EFL Cup Preview: Man City Seeks Wembley Return As Newcastle Faces Uphill Battle

Newcastle United head to the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday night hoping to overturn a two-goal deficit against Manchester City in the second leg of the EFL Cup semi-final.

‎The winner of this tie will book a place in the final at Wembley Stadium on March 22, where Arsenal await after their 4–2 aggregate win over Chelsea. For Newcastle, the mission is simple but incredibly difficult, score early, stay alive in the tie, and attempt one of the biggest comebacks in the competition’s history.

‎City Chasing Another Final Under Guardiola

‎Manchester City enter the decisive match in a strong position after their 2–0 victory at St James’ Park three weeks ago.

‎Goals from Antoine Semenyo and Rayan Cherki have placed them firmly on course to reach yet another domestic cup final under Pep Guardiola, who has already guided the club to 22 Wembley appearances.

‎City’s track record also strengthens its hand. They have failed to reach the EFL Cup final only once after winning the first leg of a semi-final, and with eight titles in the trophy cabinet, they remain the second most successful team in the competition.

‎The first leg win, however, has not masked their recent struggles. City have won just two of their last five matches across all competitions and recently let a two-goal lead slip away in a 2–2 draw at Tottenham.

‎It was the first time since 2018 that City led by two or more goals at half-time and failed to win.

‎Second-Half Issues Becoming a Pattern

‎A recurring problem for Guardiola’s side has been their inability to maintain control after the break. Since the start of 2026, they have scored six first-half goals in the Premier League without conceding, but they have allowed six second-half goals while failing to score any in return.

‎These lapses have cost them ground in the title race, where they now sit six points behind leaders Arsenal with fourteen matches left.

‎Etihad Stadium City’s Fortress

‎Despite the inconsistency, the return to the Etihad Stadium will be welcomed by City supporters. They have won fourteen of their eighteen home games this season and have dominated Newcastle at this venue in recent years.

‎City have beaten Newcastle in eleven straight home meetings with a combined score of 37–3, including a memorable 4–0 Premier League victory in February 2025. History and home advantage make the challenge ahead even more daunting for Eddie Howe’s men.

‎Newcastle’s Uphill Battle

‎Newcastle began their EFL Cup defence strongly with wins over Bradford, Tottenham, and Fulham, but their ten-match winning run in the competition ended with a defeat in the first leg.

‎Conceding a second goal deep into stoppage time felt like a “body blow” for Eddie Howe, though the manager insists the tie is far from over.

‎He believes his side can still fight back, hoping to emulate Aston Villa’s famous comeback in 1993–94 the only time a team has overturned a two-goal deficit in an EFL Cup semi-final.

‎The statistics, however, paint a difficult picture. Newcastle have lost seventeen of their last eighteen visits to Manchester City and have only won once at the Etihad in the last twenty-two years.

‎Their away form this season has also been unimpressive, with only three wins from sixteen matches across all competitions. Their latest outing, a 4–1 defeat at Liverpool, sent them sliding to tenth in the Premier League table and left them six points adrift of the top five.

‎Reasons for Hope

‎Even with the odds stacked heavily against them, Newcastle can draw encouragement from their recent history in this competition.

‎They have eliminated Manchester City in their last two EFL Cup meetings and also beat Guardiola’s side 2–1 in the Premier League back in November. Achieving two victories over City in one season would be a first since the 1983–84 campaign, and Howe will hope that history repeats itself.

‎Team News

‎Manchester City’s squad remains stretched through injury. Ruben Dias has returned to training but is not expected to feature, while Jeremy Doku, Josko Gvardiol, John Stones, Mateo Kovacic, and Savinho continue their recovery.

‎January signing Marc Guehi is ineligible for the tie, meaning Guardiola may pair either Nathan Ake or youngster Max Alleyne with Abdukodir Khusanov in central defence. James Trafford is likely to start in goal, replacing Gianluigi Donnarumma.

‎In attack, Rayan Cherki is pushing to return despite a minor knock and could become the first City player since Yaya Touré to score in four straight EFL Cup games.

‎Semenyo, who scored in both the first leg and against Tottenham, may retain his place alongside Erling Haaland, though Omar Marmoush, who registered a hat-trick against Newcastle last season, will also be hoping for a start.

‎Phil Foden, left out against Spurs, is aiming to force his way back into the lineup.

‎Newcastle face even more significant fitness concerns. Bruno Guimaraes and Lewis Miley are expected to miss out through injury, while Joelinton, Tino Livramento, Fabian Schär, and Emil Krafth remain sidelined.

‎Sven Botman is available again, providing some defensive stability. With Guimaraes and Miley absent, Sandro Tonali may anchor the midfield, potentially alongside Jacob Ramsey and Joe Willock.

‎Eddie Howe opted for a striker-less front three against Liverpool, but given the importance of this match, he may turn to a more traditional centre-forward. Yoane Wissa or Nick Woltemade could lead the line, depending on Howe’s tactical approach.

‎Prediction: Manchester City 3–1 Newcastle United (5–1 on Aggregate)

‎Newcastle have no choice but to attack from the start if they want to give themselves any chance of a comeback.

‎Avoiding an early setback will be essential, as they have conceded inside the first twenty minutes in seven of their last eight visits to the Etihad and gone on to lose each time.

‎The Magpies have enough attacking talent to cause problems for Manchester City and take advantage of their high defensive line.

‎However, Guardiola’s men still carry superior firepower despite their recent inconsistencies. With a comfortable first-leg advantage behind them, City should be able to manage the game effectively.

‎Backed by their home crowd, they are expected to book another trip to Wembley and move closer to reclaiming the trophy they last lifted in 2021.