Champions League Final: What the Statistics Show About Wembley Clash

Wembley Stadium is set to host its eighth European Cup/Champions League final and holds the record for the most finals at a single venue in history. It will also be the second venue, after the Stade de France, to host three finals in the Champions League era (2011, 2013, and 2024).

The performance of Dortmund’s defense facing Real Madrid’s attacking force, the saves made by Gregor Kobel against Vinicius Junior’s impact, and Toni Kroos’ strong stats in midfield will play significant roles in the upcoming Champions League match on Saturday evening.

Real Madrid is making their 18th appearance, while Borussia Dortmund is making their third appearance after winning their first title in 1997 against Juventus and losing to Bayern Munich in 2013. The upcoming final at Wembley will mark the first-ever showdown between the two teams in a final match.

Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid have faced each other 15 times in the competition, with their most recent encounter being in 2017 during the group stage, where Real Madrid won both matches. The Germans’ last victory against Real Madrid was in 2014, with a 2-0 win in the second leg of their quarter-final match.

Thanks to data from Opta Data Insights, we have collected some statistics ahead of Saturday’s match.

Madrid are favourites

According to Opta, Real Madrid are the favored team in the final, with a 63.5% probability of winning.

In this season’s Champions League, Carlo Ancelotti’s team remains unbeaten, with eight wins and four draws. A triumph would see Real Madrid match Barcelona’s record from the 2005/2006 season.

On the contrary, Dortmund enters the final with two losses one against PSG in the group stage and the other against Atletico Madrid in the quarter-finals.

Toni Kroos for history

Just like Marco Reus, his fellow countryman Toni Kroos has revealed his decision to depart from his current club after the season. This will mark the last club match of his career, concluding a 10-year relationship with Real Madrid.

Toni Kroos will play his 465th match for the recently crowned Spanish champions. In the event of a win, he will become the first player to achieve victory in his final Champions League game since Xavi in 2015.

This will be the seventh Champions League final for Kroos, except for missing out due to injury in 2013. The former Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen player has successfully completed 10,004 passes in his 150 Champions League appearances, the highest number by any player since the 2003/04 season.

Hummels the dependable

Mats Hummels was unexpectedly not included in Germany’s Euro 2024 squad, a decision that greatly disappointed the German center-back. As a result, he will conclude his season at Wembley.

Following his goal in the semi-final against PSG, the defender is aiming for a remarkable achievement. The 35-year-old has played every minute of the Champions League this season. If he completes the full match in the final, he will be the first outfield player since Cristiano Ronaldo in 2017/18 to have not missed a single minute of action.

Aside from his goal-scoring prowess, Hummels has also been remarkable tackles, making 48 in this tournament, the highest for a single player since Inter’s Lucio in 2009/10 (53).

Mats Hummels and Reus, were in attendance at Wembley in 2013 when Borussia Dortmund lost to Bayern Munich.

Dortmund grateful to Kobel

Borussia Dortmund owe their place in the final to their goalkeeper, who has only conceded nine goals throughout the tournament. Gregor Kobel has been outstanding in goal, saving 84% of the shots he has encountered in the competition (42 out of 50).

Look out for Vini

Who will shine on Saturday, the Brazilians Vinicius Jr and Rodrygo, or the English duo Jude Bellingham and Jadon Sancho? It is imperative to keep a close eye on the first player mentioned, as no one has scored more goals in the last three seasons of the competition than Vinicius Jr.

The Brazilian attacker has scored 16 goals and contributed 15 assists, with 17 of the goals he has been involved in coming during the knockout phase of the tournament.

In the current season, he has scored five goals and provided four assists. Should he deliver an assist in the final, he will be the first player to achieve 5+ goals and 5+ assists in two consecutive seasons since Luis Figo accomplished it with Barcelona and Real Madrid in 1999/00 and 2000/01.