High Stakes: Champions League League Phase Reaches Decisive Final Matchday

The UEFA Champions League (UCL) concludes its inaugural league phase on Wednesday.

As the final round of fixtures for Europe’s premier club competition approaches, there is much at stake.

Sportxparte examines the various factors and outcomes to consider as all 18 matches are set to begin at 21:00 CET.

Round of 16 spots: Liverpool and Barcelona are already through; who will join?

Two clubs have managed to secure a place in the last 16 with a game to spare. Liverpool are the only side to win all seven of their matches this term, allowing Arne Slot’s men to travel to Eindhoven to face PSV without any pressure.

They will also finish no worse than second.

Barcelona is the second club to secure a spot in the round of 16, accumulating 18 points. A victory at home against Atalanta will guarantee that the Blaugrana finishes in either first or second place.

However, the situation becomes more intriguing from that point onward. Teams ranging from third to 18th place are still vying for the remaining six spots in the top eight.

Arsenal and Inter, both with 16 points, along with Atletico Madrid, AC Milan (each with 15 points), and Atalanta (with 14 points) have the opportunity to secure their positions.

If any of these five clubs achieve victories, they will join Liverpool and Barcelona in the last 16.

In fact, both teams on 16 points will also clinch with just a point.

Arsenal travel to already-eliminated Girona, and are almost assured a place in the top eight. Meanwhile, Inter host AS Monaco, who are one of six teams on 13 points. That leaves the Nerazzurri unable to rest on their laurels.

Atletico Madrid travels to Austria to face RB Salzburg, who have already been eliminated. In contrast, AC Milan will face a more challenging match as they visit Dinamo Zagreb, a team eager to remain in contention for the competition.

Beyond those five clubs, six others are on 13 points. While a win will increase their chances of a top-eight spot, nothing is guaranteed. Bayer Leverkusen are currently holding onto the eighth spot ahead of their home match versus Sparta Prague.

The Czech side will not play another UCL match this season after Wednesday, and will be out to play spoilers.

Lille and Feyenoord, who are set to clash, are among the six teams vying for qualification. A draw in France will not benefit either side, making this match one to watch closely.

Meanwhile, Monaco, Aston Villa, and Brest also stand on 13 points from seven matches. Aston Villa will host Celtic, while Brest will take on Real Madrid.

Speaking of Celtic and Real, they are part of a quintet on a dozen points. The likelihood of a team currently on 12 points and making the top eight is very low. Also on 12 points are Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, and Juventus.

Die Schwarzgelben will take on Shakhtar Donetsk in what will be a difficult one for them.

As for Bayern, they are also at home, facing an eliminated side in Slovan Bratislava. Juve take on Benfica, the latter still needing a result.

The minimum number of points anticipated to secure a position in the top eight is 16. Achieving anything less would be quite unexpected.

This means that teams currently holding 12 points will automatically advance to the knockout round playoffs, regardless of the outcomes of their matches.

Knockout round playoff places: Big clubs under serious pressure

There are six more spots in the knockout rounds, with nine teams in the running for them. Currently in the top 24 are PSV, Club Brugge (11), Benfica, PSG, Sporting CP, and Stuttgart (10). The remaining three teams in the running, Manchester City, Dinamo Zagreb (8), and Shakhtar Donetsk (7), are on the outside looking in.

Probably the match with the most consequence in this round is between Stuttgart and PSG. Both sides will progress, while a defeat for either could see their Champions League campaign conclude at this stage. It is truly a mouthwatering clash, with a lot on the line.

Manchester City facing Club Brugge is also a crucial one here. While the Belgian side are unlikely to be eliminated on Wednesday night, they have the chance to eliminate a big name in the competition.

Benfica are at Juventus, and Sporting face the eliminated Bologna.

Dinamo has a tough match at home to Milan, while Shakhtar meets Dortmund. The biggest problem for them is that 11 points are expected to be the minimum number to advance. As such, the Ukrainians have an incredibly low chance of progressing. Still, never say never.

Goal difference is also something to keep an eye on. While Club Brugge and PSV are on 11 points, they are seldom safe, especially the former. As such, a point would be useful for both clubs to be absolutely sure of progression.

Unlike the UEFA Conference League’s final matchday, there are two dead rubbers on Wednesday in the Champions League. These will take place in Switzerland and Austria. Young Boys battle Crvena Zvezda for the second year running, while Sturm Graz meets RB Leipzig.