Stats Suggest Barcelona Vs Inter Could Be A Champions League Showstopper

‎On Wednesday evening, an epic Champions League semi-final battle unfolds as Internazionale travel to Catalonia for the first leg against Barcelona.

‎Hansi Flick’s team aims to avenge Barca’s loss to Jose Mourinho’s Inter in 2010, the only previous encounter between these two European giants in the knockout stages of the competition.

‎On that occasion, Barcelona were the reigning UCL champions and had the reward of a final at Real Madrid’s Santiago Bernabeu stadium were they to progress. Ultimately, a 3-1 loss at the Giuseppe Meazza and a 1-0 win at Camp Nou saw them conquered 3-2 on aggregate.

‎Recall Mourinho’s iconic celebration as he ran onto the pitch to join the Inter supporters high in the stands.

‎Although the defeat still stings, Barcelona can take comfort in their strong record at home against Inter in the Champions League, where they remain unbeaten in six matches (W5 D1).

‎These five home victories are Barcelona’s joint-best record against an opponent in the competition, matching their five wins against AC Milan.

‎Additionally, Chelsea is the only team they’ve hosted more frequently in the Champions League without suffering a defeat, with seven encounters.

‎Barcelona unbeaten against Inter at home in the Champions League

‎If Barcelona can find their usual rhythm on Wednesday, they could extend that record with another win, possibly even securing the tie before the second leg, as Inter has recently been struggling.

‎Having been in dominant form for much of the season and eyeing a potential treble, Inter’s recent results have been disappointing.

‎They have drawn with Parma and lost to Bologna and Roma in their last three Serie A matches, giving Napoli the edge in the title race.

‎A jarring 3-0 defeat to rivals AC Milan in the second leg of the Coppa Italia semi-final a week ago (4-1 on agg.) meant that the Rossoneri and not the Nerazzurri will be contesting the final against Bologna.

‎This is certainly not the time for Simone Inzaghi’s squad to produce their worst performances of the season, especially since Barcelona hasn’t lost any of their six home matches in this season’s Champions League (W5 D1), scoring a total of 21 goals.

‎Only in the 1999/2000 campaign have they ever scored more at home in a single UCL season, with 29 goals in eight games.

‎The two teams have faced each other on 16 previous occasions in Europe, with Barca winning exactly half of those (W8 D5 L3). They are, however, winless in the two most recent games (group stages of the 2022/23 competition (0-1 away, 3-3 at home)).

‎The unstoppable force against the immovable object

‎These matchups have consistently been entertaining, creating a classic clash of the unstoppable force against the immovable object.

‎Barcelona’s 89 league goals this season, along with 37 in the Champions League so far, highlight the challenge Inter faces.

‎However, with only 33 goals conceded, the Italians are capable of delivering a solid defensive performance and may well frustrate their opponents.

‎To put that into a little more perspective, Barca are averaging 3.1 goals per game under Hansi Flick in the UCL; the second-most by a manager-club duo with 10+ games, after Hansi Flick’s Bayern Munich (3.2).

‎However, Inter could equal the record for most clean sheets by an Italian team in a Champions League campaign (currently on eight), held by AC Milan in 2004/05 and Juventus in 2016/17 (both nine).

‎Hansi Flick and Simone Inzaghi when coaches of Bayern Munich and Lazio, respectively.

‎Despite their defensive focus, Inter can look to Nicolo Barella to energize their attacks, as he averages more progressive passes per 90 minutes (7.1) than any other player in the competition this season with at least 500 minutes played.

‎He also has the highest progressive pass percentage among central midfielders at 12%.

‎Barella’s ability to advance the ball could be crucial in breaking down Barcelona’s defense and creating scoring opportunities.

‎Barca may have to forego a high defensive line just this once

‎Martinez and Marko Arnautovic are two strikers who are willing to break through Barcelona’s high line and can effectively hold up the ball.

‎They also can lay opportunities for Federico Dimarco and Matteo Darmian by involving them in attacks down the channels.

‎Given the penchant for Jules Kounde and Gerard Martin to bomb forward at every opportunity, seeking out their own widemen could be Inter’s best chance of success in both games.

‎Hansi Flick’s bravery in insisting on playing with a high line might, therefore, have to take a back seat just this once.

‎If Inter opts for a 3-5-2 formation like they did in their recent match against Roma, it could help prevent Pedri and Frenkie de Jong from penetrating centrally, thereby disrupting Barcelona’s creativity and playmaking.

‎This promises to be another intense, high-stakes tactical battle, with the outcome possibly only decided in the final moments of the second leg.

‎Martinez looking to equal Cavani’s record

‎Lautaro Martinez has scored in his last five appearances in the tournament, and if he finds the net against Barcelona. He’ll become only the second South American player to score in six consecutive Champions League games, after Edinson Cavani, who achieved seven between November 2016 and October 2017.

‎For Barcelona, Lamine Yamal and Raphinha have combined for more goals than any other duo in the Champions League this season, with five (two Yamal assists and three Raphinha assists).

‎They also have the most created chances between each other of any teammate pairing, with 16 (eight each).

‎The Brazilian will be making his 25th appearance in the competition and has, to date, been directly involved in 26 goals (15 goals, 11 assists).

‎Only two players in the history of the Champions League have more goal contributions in their first 25 games: Erling Haaland (36) and Luis Suarez (28).

‎Although they have faced some recent scares, Barcelona has lost just once in this calendar year, which occurred in the second leg of their quarter-final against Borussia Dortmund.

‎Under Hansi Flick, the team appears capable of elevating their performance when necessary, and that’s something Inter must be prepared to counter.