Supercomputer Predicts Premier League Title Race After Arsenal Slip Against Aston Villa

Matchday 22 of the Premier League season looks like it could be a crucial one.

Liverpool, currently at the top of the table, seemed likely to lose points in their away match against Brentford.

However, a stoppage-time brace from the struggling Darwin Nunez secured a crucial 2-0 victory. This win gained even more importance when Arsenal squandered a two-goal advantage against Aston Villa later that same day.

There’s still a long way to go, but here’s how the stats whizzes over at Opta see the Premier League title race unfolding after the latest round of drama.

Supercomputer predicts 2024/25 Premier League title winner

Arsenal’s draw has allowed Liverpool to extend their lead to six points at the top of the standings, and they also have the advantage of a game in hand, which will take place away at Everton next month.

There’s no doubt about it, that’s a significant advantage at this point in the season.

This is evident in the statistics, with Opta assigning Liverpool an impressive 91.5% probability of securing the Premier League trophy for Arne Slot in his first season at Anfield. No other team has a higher likelihood of finishing in any specific position than Liverpool does in first place.

Mikel Arteta knows there is a gulf to close if Arsenal are to finally win the title this year. The stats are not on his side, with the Gunners given odds of just 8.2% of wrestling the title away from Liverpool.

It’s not a two-horse race, however. Eight-placed Manchester City are still given a 0.2% chance of completing the most stunning title turnaround in history, while the high-flying Nottingham Forest sit at 0.1%.

Newcastle United and Chelsea, who sit fourth and fifth respectively, are not given any hope of winning the big one.

Rank Club The probability of winning the title

1.

Liverpool

91.5%

2.

Arsenal

8.2%

3.

Manchester City

0.2%

4.

Nottingham Forest

0.1%